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Post by Robert in California on Feb 28, 2020 4:51:26 GMT
My concerns are due to indicators: .1. Severe virus issues in China (sickness, closed businesses, etc)... .2. Multi-Country economic turmoil .3. Reported ease of contagion .4. That going on 3 weeks now, I have not heard (or gotten any replies to emails to Van Yang of Jkoo/Sinosword... normally I get reply in a couple days or so).
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Post by razzle on Mar 3, 2020 13:56:33 GMT
That going on 3 weeks now, I have not heard (or gotten any replies to emails to Van Yang of Jkoo/Sinosword... normally I get reply in a couple days or so). I received a reply from Jkoo now, two days after I sent a request for a custom sword. They said they are not able to send a sword at this time, and to contact them again in one month. So I guess it's because the government has delayed production startup after Chinese new year because of the virus. I can wait a month, no problem.
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Post by bebut on Mar 3, 2020 16:27:45 GMT
Projections I have seen go from 3 to 9 months for this to blow over, with fatalities and economic carnage proportional to how long it lasts. The good news is that the world will probably realize that China is a public health hazard and take reasonable precautions like airport screening and ship crew quarantine. Likewise, many countries will diversify their sources for vaccines and medical supplies to not be caught empty handed.
None of this should have any long term effect on swords or other manufactured goods, except for medical supplies.
Being sick today is infinitely more important that some hypothetical climate collapse in 30 years!
Economic damage could aggravate a bunch of existing problems and be a bigger concern than the medical issues. The world is overdue for a recession based on the normal business cycles and this could trigger a doozie.
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juardian
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Post by juardian on Mar 3, 2020 22:19:19 GMT
That going on 3 weeks now, I have not heard (or gotten any replies to emails to Van Yang of Jkoo/Sinosword... normally I get reply in a couple days or so). I received a reply from Jkoo now, two days after I sent a request for a custom sword. They said they are not able to send a sword at this time, and to contact them again in one month. So I guess it's because the government has delayed production startup after Chinese new year because of the virus. I can wait a month, no problem. Thanks for posting this update, I ordered my first custom Jkoo sword two weeks ago and I had no idea they were entering a month-long delay. Now I know to at least add a month to my expected time.
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Post by howler on Mar 4, 2020 0:29:06 GMT
Projections I have seen go from 3 to 9 months for this to blow over, with fatalities and economic carnage proportional to how long it lasts. The good news is that the world will probably realize that China is a public health hazard and take reasonable precautions like airport screening and ship crew quarantine. Likewise, many countries will diversify their sources for vaccines and medical supplies to not be caught empty handed. None of this should have any long term effect on swords or other manufactured goods, except for medical supplies. Being sick today is infinitely more important that some hypothetical climate collapse in 30 years! Economic damage could aggravate a bunch of existing problems and be a bigger concern than the medical issues. The world is overdue for a recession based on the normal business cycles and this could trigger a doozie. Hopefully there will be a calming down as people realize that it's basically the flu and it will be normalized and dealt with like any other issue. This event probably kick started a long overdue market correction but whether a recession is a good question.
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reptaronice1
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Post by reptaronice1 on Mar 7, 2020 2:51:59 GMT
Projections I have seen go from 3 to 9 months for this to blow over, with fatalities and economic carnage proportional to how long it lasts. The good news is that the world will probably realize that China is a public health hazard and take reasonable precautions like airport screening and ship crew quarantine. Likewise, many countries will diversify their sources for vaccines and medical supplies to not be caught empty handed. None of this should have any long term effect on swords or other manufactured goods, except for medical supplies. Being sick today is infinitely more important that some hypothetical climate collapse in 30 years! Economic damage could aggravate a bunch of existing problems and be a bigger concern than the medical issues. The world is overdue for a recession based on the normal business cycles and this could trigger a doozie. Hopefully there will be a calming down as people realize that it's basically the flu and it will be normalized and dealt with like any other issue. This event probably kick started a long overdue market correction but whether a recession is a good question. It’s the same family as the flu but more dangerous in older people.
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Post by bradc on Mar 7, 2020 3:25:41 GMT
Hopefully there will be a calming down as people realize that it's basically the flu and it will be normalized and dealt with like any other issue. This event probably kick started a long overdue market correction but whether a recession is a good question. It’s the same family as the flu but more dangerous in older people. Ps family is a technical term: SARS-CoV2 (Coronaviridae) and Influenza (Orthomyxoviridae) are not in the same family or even phylum. Both are not great if you are old and/or unwell.
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Post by howler on Mar 7, 2020 5:11:47 GMT
It’s the same family as the flu but more dangerous in older people. Ps family is a technical term: SARS-CoV2 (Coronaviridae) and Influenza (Orthomyxoviridae) are not in the same family or even phylum. Both are not great if you are old and/or unwell. My hope is that as the number of people infected increase (as it surely will) the overall mortality rate will decrease, as most people infected don't even know they have it or have minor symptoms. My fear is that people freak out and treat it like it's the Andromeda Strain or Capt. Trip from The Stand.
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reptaronice1
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Post by reptaronice1 on Mar 7, 2020 6:02:26 GMT
It’s the same family as the flu but more dangerous in older people. Ps family is a technical term: SARS-CoV2 (Coronaviridae) and Influenza (Orthomyxoviridae) are not in the same family or even phylum. Both are not great if you are old and/or unwell. Common cold I meant not flu
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Post by theophilus736 on Mar 8, 2020 2:55:58 GMT
Seattle, 15 out of 71 have died, with 55 of the 71 still sick. Yesterday it was like 58 reported sick. That's 21% dead. Italy has 5,883 cases with 233 dead. 5061 still active. That's only 3% dead.
Reality is, we still don't know how deadly this is in relation to the flu. China's numbers don't count as they aren't honest. If someone said an active shooter was going to show up at my workplace on Monday and only 3% of us would be fatally shot, I would still call in for the day..
Either way, guess where most of my kitchen supplies come from? China. Swords are the least of our concerns right now.
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AndiTheBarvarian
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Post by AndiTheBarvarian on Mar 8, 2020 3:14:54 GMT
Probably it's not deadlier than the flu, but we still have no vaccines for the old and ill people. The high death rate in the US is probably just a sign of insufficient testing and disease control. Germany has 700 positive tested with no death yet. Probably in 5 years 90% of mankind has got it. Better quit smoking!
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Post by howler on Mar 8, 2020 4:23:26 GMT
Probably it's not deadlier than the flu, but we still have no vaccines for the old and ill people. The high death rate in the US is probably just a sign of insufficient testing and disease control. Germany has 700 positive tested with no death yet. Probably in 5 years 90% of mankind has got it. Better quit smoking! Agreed. As more people are tested and come down with it the fatality rate will surely fall to around flu level. Most of the dead in Seattle were from a health facility housing infirm individuals.
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Post by treeslicer on Mar 8, 2020 23:29:10 GMT
Ps family is a technical term: SARS-CoV2 (Coronaviridae) and Influenza (Orthomyxoviridae) are not in the same family or even phylum. Both are not great if you are old and/or unwell. My hope is that as the number of people infected increase (as it surely will) the overall mortality rate will decrease, as most people infected don't even know they have it or have minor symptoms. My fear is that people freak out and treat it like it's the Andromeda Strain or Capt. Trip from The Stand. You forgot the Shiva virus from Rainbow Six.
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Post by howler on Mar 9, 2020 0:58:24 GMT
My hope is that as the number of people infected increase (as it surely will) the overall mortality rate will decrease, as most people infected don't even know they have it or have minor symptoms. My fear is that people freak out and treat it like it's the Andromeda Strain or Capt. Trip from The Stand. You forgot the Shiva virus from Rainbow Six. Or whatever it was (assuming communicable contagion) that hit the world in AMCs The Walking Dead. I really don't think science can adequately explain decomposing corpses walking the Earth.
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Post by Lord Newport on Mar 9, 2020 1:38:06 GMT
You forgot the Shiva virus from Rainbow Six. Or whatever it was (assuming communicable contagion) that hit the world in AMCs The Walking Dead. I really don't think science can adequately explain decomposing corpses walking the Earth. Yup... how can rotting wasting away corpses still have motive capability as the muscle rots off the skeletal structure? Gave up on that series long ago.. they just keep rehashing the same old crap/situations again and again and the characters never learn from the prior event. Waaay too much political correctness in the writing tot;a;y out of place with the scenario.
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Post by howler on Mar 9, 2020 4:33:08 GMT
Or whatever it was (assuming communicable contagion) that hit the world in AMCs The Walking Dead. I really don't think science can adequately explain decomposing corpses walking the Earth. Yup... how can rotting wasting away corpses still have motive capability as the muscle rots off the skeletal structure? Gave up on that series long ago.. they just keep rehashing the same old crap/situations again and again and the characters never learn from the prior event. Waaay too much political correctness in the writing tot;a;y out of place with the scenario. It appears that they are just using the zombies (though they never used that word) as nothing more than a plot vehicle to emphasize the human interactions. Regarding walking corpses, no standard electrochemical pathways, oxygen, digestive, etc...systems unless other foreign cells & structures power the rotting carcass.
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Zen_Hydra
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Post by Zen_Hydra on Mar 9, 2020 11:22:09 GMT
My hope is that as the number of people infected increase (as it surely will) the overall mortality rate will decrease, as most people infected don't even know they have it or have minor symptoms. My fear is that people freak out and treat it like it's the Andromeda Strain or Capt. Trip from The Stand. You forgot the Shiva virus from Rainbow Six. Was that the engineered one from the book?
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Post by paulmuaddib on Mar 9, 2020 11:50:08 GMT
You forgot the Shiva virus from Rainbow Six. Was that the engineered one from the book? Yes
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Post by Dandelion on Mar 9, 2020 12:34:56 GMT
Probably it's not deadlier than the flu, but we still have no vaccines for the old and ill people. The high death rate in the US is probably just a sign of insufficient testing and disease control. Germany has 700 positive tested with no death yet. Probably in 5 years 90% of mankind has got it. Better quit smoking! One 60 year old male person now dead...
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AndiTheBarvarian
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Post by AndiTheBarvarian on Mar 9, 2020 12:52:32 GMT
From 1100 positive tested, 0,09 % The question is how long we can keep it away from hospitals (ill people) or old-age homes.
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