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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2008 2:14:02 GMT
Futures prices on industrial metals are falling. For a long time we have been hearing that raw metal prices are going up and swords are getting more expensive. That is no longer the case. bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/cfutures.htmlCommodities prices are falling. That means steel is going to be cheaper. Economic recessions, as they are engineered in the US, are a catharsis. It's a reset button that checks inflation. Labor costs will be cheaper too. Futures prices have been set back to were they where a year ago. Don't be afraid to bargain for cheaper swords!
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2008 2:55:39 GMT
The flip side is that in times of economic hardship, the demand for non essential goods drops dramatically. The sheer quantity of sword being sold drops, slowly forges dont make as many swords, which pushes up costs as the 'bulk' buying ability dissapears. Speaking as an aussie, the combination of the strong aussie $ and the piss poor US $ saw 1AUD =98c US, in the last few weeks its dropped and a aussie dollar buys about 73c US. On the whole id be suprised to see them come down in price, they may not rise as much as quickly, but I wouldnt be expecting a decrease..
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2008 6:17:21 GMT
The weak dollar is what all this whole credit crunch recession is about. Governments don't say this, but beside taxing and borrowing they have another way of raising money. They print it. Lots of it. If they didn't print more paper, it would appreciate in value just land which is fixed. They are only suppose to print enough new money to keep up with the population growth rates. Sitting administrations usually print money way beyond population growth rates and they need to clean this up before they leave. This is nothing new, Clinton did the same thing and then tightened the purse strings at the end too. I don't think they will go overboard. They have brought commodity prices to were they are a year ago. I think they might want to bring them down another 10%. That is my guess.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2008 6:18:43 GMT
Yeah I wouldn't expect a drop in price. Like Mike said, swords are not gas, food, building material etc. that people are going to buy no matter what. They're a hobby/luxury item.
Price for steel might fall, but amount of people buying swords will likely fall too.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2008 6:26:43 GMT
Well yes...and when the economy picks up again, instead of lowering the prices, they will just not raise the prices for a longer period of time. At least until the next bubble is created...and yes there WILL be a next bubble.
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slav
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Post by slav on Oct 7, 2008 6:50:24 GMT
Regardless of whether sword prices as a whole are falling or not, now is the time to keep your eyes out (on eBAy and elsewhere) for people dumping off luxury goods such as Nihonto and swords. I have seen quite a few deals lately.
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Post by wiwingti on Oct 7, 2008 8:14:43 GMT
Regardless of whether sword prices as a whole are falling or not, now is the time to keep your eyes out (on eBAy and elsewhere) for people dumping off luxury goods such as Nihonto and swords. I have seen quite a few deals lately. and look for what in particular? lol wich names do we have to look for, ?
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Post by shadowhowler on Oct 7, 2008 14:40:21 GMT
and look for what in particular? lol wich names do we have to look for, ? You don't think that slavia631, the famed Ebay 'ninja', is going to give up his secrets so easily do you? Sadly he is right tho... I have started two collections in my past... and was forced to sell them off when I hit hard times. A lot of people are hitting hard times now... so expect a lot of people to be selling of peices of their collections. If your smart, carefull, and lucky... now may a be a good bargin hunting time.
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Post by ShooterMike on Oct 7, 2008 20:11:05 GMT
I have to agree. Definitely likely to see more used swords in the classified pages of sword sites as well as ebay. But I would be willing to bet any new swords worth buying won't drop in price. If anything, they will likely increase slightly as the quantity goes down... until the manufacturers decide to move to manufacturing less "luxury item" products like machine tools and parts, etc. instead of swords. Then the selection of swords may reduce significantly.
Then again, miracles can happen. Like the economy rebounding quickly and we're back to the market of earlier this year. But I'm not betting on it...
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2008 2:30:26 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2008 23:17:45 GMT
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Post by shadowhowler on Oct 21, 2008 1:42:59 GMT
Ugh... It makes me sick... probably the best time I would have to get high end sword like this... we are talking around 200 bucks off on avarage... but it's STILL way out of my pricerange, twice the tops of what we look at here.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2008 4:04:39 GMT
Recessions last about a year. Prices will come down further.
This just goes to prove that just like the laws of physics apply everywhere in the universe, so do economics.
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slav
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Post by slav on Oct 21, 2008 5:44:41 GMT
Sure wish I had entered the market two weeks ago like I was considering...
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2008 6:03:11 GMT
I think its going to bounce around a bit at least until the election. You should see a nice relief rally if the election is clean and decisive. The markets world wide run ahead of the economy. So by next spring you should see the world economies actually hit bottom but the trading markets starting to climb on anticipation of an economic rebound.
Your safest bet is in Large Cap Index Funds.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2008 6:19:45 GMT
So, how 'bout them sea eagles ?? ;D
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Marc Ridgeway
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Post by Marc Ridgeway on Oct 22, 2008 3:08:19 GMT
Regardless of whether sword prices as a whole are falling or not, now is the time to keep your eyes out (on eBAy and elsewhere) for people dumping off luxury goods such as Nihonto and swords. I have seen quite a few deals lately. If I was in the market right now I wouldn't be posting these , I'd be buying them... A fully mounted antique nihonto and a fully mounted Rick Barrett katana both for $6000 www.swordforum.com/forums/showthread.php?t=92518www.swordforum.com/forums/showthread.php?t=92517
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2008 3:54:07 GMT
Ah you know if I had never gotten married, had kids, gotten divorced, gotten a fiance and had another kid, I'd be able to pick both of those up! As it is, they are so far above my meager budget for fun things that its just depressing to look at them. Honestly if I were single I'd have so many toys... a handful of class 3 toys like ShooterMike has as well as a room full of toys like what you just posted Marc. Oh well I love my kids and even though the thought of selling them off to the highest bidder gets really tantalizing at some points I really wouldn't give them up for anything. Now to oggle and wish.
-Sam
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