Corona Virus

Just the facts...

www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-coronavirus-spread-around-the-world-so-rapidly-and-what-we-can-learn-from-missteps-made-in-those-critical-early-days-2020-03-04

A timeline of events in the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak



Dec. 1: The first known patient to have contracted the virus is identified in Wuhan, according to a boots-on-the-ground investigation by a group of Chinese researchers published in the medical journal The Lancet. “None of his family members developed fever or any respiratory symptoms. No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases,” they wrote.



Dec. 18: Ai Fen, the head of the emergency department at Wuhan Central Hospital, says shenoticed an elderly man with a lung infection, high fever and flu-like symptoms.



Late December: A Wuhan doctor posts in a WeChat group that there were seven cases of what he describes as SARS connected to the food market. At the behest of the local Communist party office, he later signs a document at a local police station saying he made an error.

Dec. 31: Authorities inform the WHO China Country Office of cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan.



Jan. 1: The food market in Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, closes for environmental sanitation and disinfection. WHO requests further information from China.



Jan. 7: Chinese scientists say they’ve identified a new virus that, like SARS and the common cold, belongs to the coronavirus family. Chinese President Xi Jinping issues orders to contain the new coronavirus, according to Qiushi, the official Communist party magazine; previous reporting by Chinese state media gave Jan. 20 as the date the president issued those orders.



Jan. 11: China announces the first known death from the coronavirus: a 61-year-old man who had bought food at the Wuhan market. WHO receives “detailed information” from Chinese authorities that there is “no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission” linked to coronavirus cases found.



Jan. 15: Wuhan’s health commission releases a statement: “The possibility of limited human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out.”



Jan. 18: An annual potluck banquet is held for 40,000 families from a city precinct in Wuhan.



Wuhan’s mayor said 5 million people left the city before travel restrictions were imposed ahead of the Lunar New Year.

Jan. 20: Chinese officials say the coronavirus, which initially spread from an animal or animals to people, can be transmitted through human-to-human contact.



Jan. 23: Public transport on buses, trains and ferries in Wuhan are suspended from 10 a.m. local time to help prevent the spread of the virus.

Jan. 24: WHO says it’s too early to declare a “public-health emergency of international concern,” its highest alert. Coronavirus makes its first official appearance in Europe, with French authorities confirming three cases of the virus. Australia confirms four people with the virus.



Jan. 25: Pared-down Lunar New Year celebrations begin with many of the festivities canceled.



Jan. 29: The New England Journal of Medicine says: “There is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019.”



Jan. 30: As the virus spreads internationally, the WHO’s Tedros declares the coronavirus a public-health emergency of international concern.



Feb. 2: The first official death from COVID-19 outside of China is reported in the Philippines: a 44-year-old Chinese man who arrived in Manila from Wuhan.



Feb. 7: Dr. Li Wenliang, 34, the doctor who first sounded the alarm on the virus in an online chat group with other doctors, dies. The hospital where he worked makes the announcement.

What made this bug different is that it has a long incubation period and most people who get it have common symptoms that they may not recognize as something serious. It also hit at a time when millions of Chinese were on the road for a major holiday. A bad set of circumstances, but now the cat is out of the bag and it will be easier to control. Not saying it will be easy and reports say 3 to 9 months to contain it.

This video gives some info on the probable origins-wildlife farming/smuggling and unsanitary markets.

China gov tried to deny the problem in its own country first, US gov obviously does too.
The reason to avoid panic is ok. 
A high death rate at the beginning is just a sign of incompetence. 

How has the US government been denying the problem? Seems to me they been reporting the number of cases of known/confirmed infection and deaths pretty accurately so far. They are working hard to track down contacts of potential infection too.

China sat on information for almost two months so the US and the ref of the world have had little time to prepare...

Why the incompetence of the administration? 

The slide and projection was from a Professor Lawler and a best guess

"The horrifying forecast was contained in slides James Lawler of the University of Nebraska Medical Center presented during a webinar hosted by the American Hospital Association on February 26, reports Business Insider."

www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2020/03/coronavirus-professor-s-best-guess-has-half-a-million-americans-dead.html



www.businessinsider.com/presentation-how-hospitals-are-preparing-for-us-coronavirus-outbreak-2020-3?r=AU&IR=T

an edit to mention that the projection is based largely on if domestic travel is halted.  In my other post, I mention the CVS employee that was tested positive and commuted to he RI office from out of state.  Many thousands just in New England commute to states they don't reside in.  It may be that my corner of the RI styx may be a last bastion but stuff gets around.  More and more gatherings are being cancelled worldwide.

Covid-19 is spreading and has already mutated in a more persistent form.

That Rogan video is better than I expected, BTW - mainly because he has the good sense to shut up and let the actual epidemiologist talk (that's Michael Osterholm, who's been trying to call attention to the need to prepare for this exact kind of thing for years).

Listen folks, the stuff is dangerous. Hardly apocalyptic but still serious. No amount of tough guy bad attitude is going to help if you get it. Please take it seriously. I remember just last month saying here how overblown it was, but I admit I was wrong. It’s scary and it needs to be taken seriously.

None of that, so far, just some canceled events and strongly discouraged travel destinations, and one school has suspended classes for a time after one of the kids was confirmed infected. Last I checked there were 40 cases in the country. No panicked TP hoarding, either...