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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2009 8:49:01 GMT
I've pondered this for sometime, and it may have been discussed before, but I decided to start a new post out of genuine concerns.
As people know, here in the US, we are in the midst of a recession. Financial analysts say that this could and will probably lead to a full blown depression. Even the most liberal experts place a recovery years down the road. Not being political here, just stating the facts.
Now, I, with the rest of the sword enthusiasts out there have excitingly noticed a flood of new models, prototypes, custom projects, model revamps, and everything under the sun happen in the sword industry over the last couple years. It seems to be a new golden age of the Resurrection of the Sword.
But, is the timing right?
I understand that these companies are all trying to get us to invest in their products because they look and perform better. The downside of this is the expense and increased overhead that comes with improvements. The economic climate makes materials, manpower, R&D, and other business end ventures more expensive and this transfers to the customer. Here in the sub-$300 forum, all of the buzz and hype is now about models costing $400-$500. This is not a complaint, but a fact confronting the sword market as a whole. Some people can afford to invest alot of money in sword, but can your average sword customer afford to spend these amounts of money in the current economic state?
We all know that sword collecting is a very secular market. I was a vendor for many years, and I can honestly tell you that not very many people will part with a great deal of money for a sword - even one of good quality - selling swords is a constant, insanely competitive struggle. On the customer/collector side of the fence, hardly anyone I know actually knows much about edged weaponry or collects it. Of all of my friends, family, and peers; about 100 people ranging in age from 11 and 81 years of age, I am the only one that owns a sword over $200 in value save my WMA instructor (who has a collection similar to my own). So, in these 100 people, there are two that will put money into the sword market a few times per year.
Is this enough of a potential customer base to invest money in developing newer, more expensive swords that are marketed to a secular market and be able to sustain these companies so that my children and theirs will have quality sword vendors to purchase from?
I am not sure. We have heard rumors and grumblings about increasing production costs and problems that it causes some companies. There have been utterings about some of the largest companies not being able to weather the storm and stopping production. Yet, the great competition continues into uncharted terrain. Is it possible that companies will overextend trying to beat each other out of the sword industry and be in need of a bailout themselves or suffer some other fate?
In this thread, I wanted to open discussion amongst us to talk about our thoughts and concerns. Manufacturers/vendors are more than welcome to comment, but this really is focusing on how the average sword collector feels about the onslaught of more expensive sword offerings in an increastingly competitive industry in an unstable economic climate.
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Post by kidcasanova on Apr 8, 2009 9:19:35 GMT
I think it boils down to two things: passion and opportunity. Those of us who have the opportunity and are not being hit as hard by the recession may decide to purchase a mid-high end sword on a whim, or for whatever reason. Others have less opportunity, but are more passionate about the pieces, and will put away money until they can afford it, this way they dont put undue stress on their lifestyle. Then there's people who have both passion and opportunity, and some who have none, and then everything in between. But I think those are the two main factors in who is going to buy a sword during this economic trouble.
I am taking the path of saving a bit at a time. Luckily the models I want aren't going to be out for awhile, so I've got time.
Edit: I wanted to clarify.
While you're right that the sword market itself has grown, I also think the customer pool has grown as well. Many of us have purchased sub-300 blades and would like to strive for something produced to stricter tolerances, that will handle and perform closer to an antique. I think you are right that there will be less purchases made on a whim by people only passingly interested in swords, but I also think that there is a large dedicated consumer market that is geared up to purchase quite a number of pieces.
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Post by Brendan Olszowy on Apr 8, 2009 13:14:46 GMT
I guess it depends on the socio-economic circles you move in. There's suburbs out there where the 'recession' is not even on the radar. There' s a buttload of money out there in the world. And the rich don't notice a few bucks here and there.
My sales are growing stronger and stronger. They never seem to let up, and it aint what you'd call 'rich' people buying them. Just regular Joe's. My other passion is Dirtbikes, and man a few $1000 swords is a lot more affordable than an $11,000 dirtbike plus gear and parts. Yet you still se a lot of dirtbikes on the back of pickups, hey? And as a former MC sales person I can vouch that the kids don't save up for a dirtbike. They get a loan from the bank, and just buy them. One thing that has spun me out is people asking for payment plans on a $1200 sword, and not just getting a loan from the bank and buying two?
If nothing else, when life isn't as pretty as you want it you will turn to your fantasies, your escape from reality, and that being swords. So the 'recession' can only boost sword sales. I love it. Petrol prices are down, mortgages and property prices are way down. The boom sucked.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2009 18:54:35 GMT
Good points, good points...
Small thought: Yes, more mid-range swords are becoming available, and the bang-for-buck factor seems to be increasing, but still, most of the same sub-$300 pieces are still available, correct? So, the average collector does not have to look to these higher-market pieces. I think Brenno's got a point: people are still spending on recreation. And Musashi still makes decent stuff for even less than $100, so, the entry market is still there. As for those of us who have been in it for a few years, we start to move up, don't we? But we are still spending...
Just how it seems to be to me. Bigger thought than I thought...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2009 22:46:59 GMT
Well when you get down to brass tacks, a sword ....... even a windlass that fetchs not more then 200.00US etc, if your not a cruel master will last a lifetime, it wont perish, rot, die, run out, nothing ........ you may even end up giving it to your heir to the hoard ........ even around 500.00US ........ I always think ........ not a bad investment for something I might swing with a wrinkled, arthritic wrist one day showing my GRANDSON never mind my boy of 2 now how it works and what real craftsmanship is ........... I've lost hours on my job, down a hundred a week, but hey its petrol I'm not using to go to work which I dont have to buy etc etc, buying less junk food cause its expensive and FATTY here needs to loose weight, I have ZERO debt, own everything no credit cards, dont smoke, dont gamble, drink rarely ....... and I find lifes all to easy to manage. I save 20 bucks a week, thats my sword fund ....... cuts into nothing and hey gives me more time to think TRUELY think whats best value for my next blade ....... next to debt, gambling, smoking, drinking IMPULSE buying is the next thing that will ruin your personal commerce. Thats my bit
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Post by Ronin Katana on Apr 8, 2009 22:48:28 GMT
While I can only speak to the Japanese sword market, I have noticed a definite cautionary note among consumers . I exited the sub $100 market last year, so my view of the overall market is limited.
With a look to the larger market, I am seeing a lot of new players from China entering the direct sales arena. I don't know if this is a move on their part to make up for losses in their wholesale business, or if it's an attempt to grab a larger slice of the pie.
On the large importer side of things, I've seen a few new ones appearing on the west coast. Their focus seems to be items under $30, with a marginal smattering of mid to higher priced items.
I don't really track the smaller 100 pieces a year dealers. They seem to come and go so fast, it's hard to keep up with them. Given the ever increasing rates they are forced to pay to google for traffic, I can't imagine they are doing that well.
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Post by shadowhowler on Apr 9, 2009 4:06:00 GMT
Here in the sub-$300 forum, all of the buzz and hype is now about models costing $400-$500. This is not a complaint, but a fact confronting the sword market as a whole. Which swords are you refering to? Most of the buzz I have seen invloves swords under or close to the sub 300 range. Raptor Serries: Right around $250 Valiant Armoury Practicals: Around $230 - $270 SBG customs: $300 (Now $325) Valiant Armoury Signatures: $379 - $400 Musasshi DH (maybe not) Katana: $70 - $90 I'm currious which buzz your talking about?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2009 5:25:35 GMT
What recession?
I have no debts, my work ....well im flat out and cant keep up. If anything, lately ive been better off, things are getting cheaper, fuel is cheaper, etc. as long as i have my 12 bucks for a pack of smokes evryday, im fine.
As for swords, well i think the big chinese forges wont be affected, i can see the wholesale price of steel going down soon, china bought up a lot of steel from australia last year, it ended up making us pay more for the ton, but id say now that will be reversed. production costs in china is NOTHING. thats right NOTHING. I have 2 words for yous, .SWEAT. SHOP. WE ALL KNOW THAT THE CHINESE WORKERS GET PAYED PEANUTS. i wouldnt be surprised if one musashi sword costing 70 bucks pays the weekly wage of half a dozen workers. if anything we should be paying less for these swords. for me, the only thing that stops me from buying more swords more often, is my wife. "why do you need another sword, you already have 6!!!!" but yeah, in short, id still spend up to 500 bucks on a sword and think nothing of it. not too often though, just evry now and then. i have other things to spend cash on too. lobster for 300 bucks anyone?
im not rich, im just a man working hard, breaking my back evryday, and i dont send more than i can afford. if i cant pay for it i dont want it. simple. no loans, no credit. if evry one had done the same, we wouldnt be having this convo now anyway.
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Post by shadowhowler on Apr 9, 2009 5:43:51 GMT
im not rich, im just a man working hard, breaking my back evryday, and i dont send more than i can afford. if i cant pay for it i dont want it. simple. no loans, no credit. if evry one had done the same, we wouldnt be having this convo now anyway. I don't wanna go on TOO much of a rant here... but the above words are SO true. My wife and I, when we bought our house, were approved for a loan up to 325k. However, we did not look at anything over 175k... because we know what we need, what we can comfortably afford, and we had no desire to try and 'live beyond our means'. We know many other families that have about the exact same income as we do... but greater expenses, (IE: Children.) and yet those familes have extended themselves MUCH further then we have... buying homes 50k - 100k more expensive then ours, two new cars that cost around 35k - 50k, and a whole lot of other things they don't need but buy anyway. They must have NOTHING in savings and thousands and thousands of dollars in debt. This whole housing crisis is all about people buying homes they cant afford, failing to make the payments en-mass, and the market falling on to of it's head. Homes all around my home have gone into forclosure, auction, and then sold for 25k or so less then we paid for our home. This makes the value of our home DROP into the sewer... and we did what we SHOULD have done! Stayed within our means, payed our damn bills! Ugh. End rant.
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Post by Brendan Olszowy on Apr 9, 2009 5:44:01 GMT
no loans, no credit. if evry one had done the same, we wouldnt be having this convo now anyway. hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha ;D ;D ;D Good post lts
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2009 5:53:14 GMT
If I play my cards right I won't ever need to be in debt (to the banks or loansharks, anyway). And I'm doing a bangup job so far.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2009 5:54:42 GMT
The VA Signatures are all $400.00 and that is if you get them here on the site, not retail price. All of ATrims stuff is over $400-$450. Any custom level cutler work done on any sword - even a Darksword/Windlass will push the price above $400. Then you have the Albion entry line that took a big price hike putting it well over the $400 range, making it over $500 shipped in some cases. Of course, you have the plethora of katanas dropping into the market selling for premium retail prices. There is always a buzz about VA Signatures, work from Brenno/Brian, A Trims, Albions, custom Tinker stuff and higher dollar katanas; unless I am missing something. All of these products are worth the price, so I am not slamming here...there is simply more quality out there then there was 10 years ago.
My point is not who is selling what for what price of even what the true quality is. My point is that in this economy, are companies overextending themselves into the danger zone? Better products have bigger overhead, so developing new products puts a company in the red and making more profit is mandatory. In order words, they have to sell swords to stay in business and they have to sell a higher volume than in years prior.
In a worsening economy, is it possible for the sword market to sustain everyone jumping on the band wagon and coming out with new stuff at once? Everyone wants a piece of the pie, but there are only X number of sword customers to sell too - get it? You have many companies coming out with similar offerings therefore decreasing the profit of any one said company. Pretty basic economic stuff here.
I mean, two of the Big Three sword companies have listed having problems on the other forum site. Problems that will either cause another price jump or put them out of business. This is just the type of thing I am talking about. All I am really asking and wanting to discuss is this something that we have to worry about happening to others?
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Post by Brendan Olszowy on Apr 9, 2009 5:57:23 GMT
Shadow, good onya. I was a home building consultant through the boom. I watched kids driving new cars buy ginormous homes, and they wouldn't go without the high ceilings and the fancy doors and so forth. I had one couple where they had signed up for this mega home with the lot... and then the wife got pregnant. So as it wasn't too late I said that I could sort them out with a smaller home that'd meet their needs for $40K less. But no; the husband would go work away on the mines, and be away from his pregnant wife and later his new son for 3 weeks out of the month. Just for freaking stuff. Kids gotta have their stuff. What happened to family? And now they're stuffed.
My wife and I built an investment home at the wrong time too. We just wanted to be in the game. We lost 60K. We were lucky that we had it to lose, and we learnt alot. Still really appreciate our life.
What happened to the important things in life. Family, friends, happiness. Simple pleasures. Walking the dogs, watching them or the kids play. Just being.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2009 6:02:20 GMT
What happened to the important things in life. Family, friends, happiness. Simple pleasures. Walking the dogs, watching them or the kids play. Swords. Just being. Figured I'd fix your post for you in case you angered anyone by omitting something important.
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Post by shadowhowler on Apr 9, 2009 6:15:24 GMT
What happened to the important things in life. Family, friends, happiness. Simple pleasures. Walking the dogs, watching them or the kids play. Just being. Indeed. My best friend... once upon a time he was flat broke, crashing on my couch and bumming money from me to eat. No he makes well over 5 times more money then I do... but he works all day, almost every day... and he is always stressed out. You only have this one life... and so much time in it. He almost never sees his wife, he's always working. Whats more important in life... the things he can buy with the money he makes... or the time he will never get back? Easy call for me. Guess thats why I'll never be rich... I just don't have the drive.
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Post by Brendan Olszowy on Apr 9, 2009 6:29:30 GMT
Man that's so true. He may say " but I'm saving up for the future". But the only time that you ever have is NOW. The future is imaginary. And he will die young from stress, and his wife will probably leave him. I'd rather be happy now. And hey, a Hanwei in the hand is worth 2 Jake Pownings in the bush.
I may never be rich either. I used to be miserable making $120K/yr selling new homes. Now I just pay the bills making swords. And I'm happier for sure. I get to be home with the pooches all day. And make my wife her lunch each morning, and dinner each night. Ahhh that's the life...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2009 8:40:52 GMT
Your life sounds freaking awesome Brenno. I'll bet you never imagined it when you made that first sword...
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Post by stromloswordsusa on Apr 9, 2009 11:00:39 GMT
Hi guys, Thought I would add to great comments here and ramble a little. For me sword selling is fun, and getting to talk to swordsmen & women is rarely anything but a pleasure. I assume all of us enjoys it enough to spend a little time or money when we can. I have seen an upsurge in demand which has kept me completely out of stock most months. Military swords have a bit more of the collector + pass on yo the kids edge to them. I am getting more interest from investors tired of seeing paper based stock go in flames and are looking for something real. In my alter ego as gun store/indoor range manager the times have never been busier! Guns are selling like crazy and range is busy as hell (and open 12 hours a day, 7 days a week!!). But balance in the key I just asked to have a cut in hours to let some of the desperate get hours in, and to spend time with the family, even on a tight budget. Also as an Aussie in the USA, I can now appreciate how hard working folks here get pretty slim wages, and very little govt support for say the kids, compared to home. I just brought a house here and (although a bit harder as I am an alien) the loans here in US were ridiculously easy to apply (or overapply) for and I can see how low wage earners go for the big prize. Mac bank in Aus would have slapped me for daring to apply on these figures ... here they didnt ask how many kids or even consider any of my income??? just on my wifes and gave a loan. Anyway new swords will be here in the morning, and they ain't going to sell themselves. Stand by those with preorders they will be off soon, and ebay will likely see a few more next week. Cheers, Rob www.stromloswords.com
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2009 13:42:39 GMT
I know for my part, my sword buying has dwindled down to nil...I haven't acquired a new sword in over a year. Of course, last year was mostly about armor and other gear but not a single sword, not a single functional sword I should say. Had a couple wallhangers pass my doorstep I'm almost ashamed to say- but one was a gift so therefore, it doesn't really count.
I have noticed that the cost of food went up months before the 'crash'- right about the time that gas had peaked- even the neighborhood mechanics went up in price so to say there is no impact is merely turning a blind eye to what is going on around you. Maybe not necessarily you, but I am sure there are others around or nearby who can attest to some hardship at this current time.
My wife and I bought our house a few years ago right when the market was at peak...in the space of one night we effectively lost $40k; that may not seem like much to some of you but its a helluva lot of money to me- and the fact that I am still afloat after losing that much cash does nothing to soothe my wounded pride or wallet.
And in case you're wondering, we didn't jump out there- I really wanted a SFH but we ended up with a really nice condo/townhome; in this area they're still expensive but not nearly as much as a SFH. We're actually looking at SFHs now and finding that some of them are going for less than what we paid for our TH originally. And what about all those who got swindled into signing on with an ARM (adjustable rate mortgage)? Yikes!
So...I'm getting creative with scaring up funds for my swords because I will have at least two swords this year. But I understand what Odingaard was referring to, although the customer base is probably suffering moreso than the suppliers...at least going by the few who have responded to the thread, business is as good as it has ever been, no? For that I am glad to hear.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2009 13:42:47 GMT
I have been writing up a blog on the Recession. It is written from an Accountant's and Businessman's point of view. I think that anyone who reads through it will have a better understanding of what is going on in the economy. recession-economics.blogspot.com/2009/03/thank-god-for-recession.htmlAs far as sword buying (or buying anything) goes... its a buyers market. Don't be afraid to name you price. The worse thing that can happen is that you will be told NO. As the buyer you can always make another bid.
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