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Post by pellius on Apr 26, 2022 21:58:39 GMT
Okay, so I’m not a finance person, and I’m not inviting political discussion in any way.
With that out of the way, just a courtesy heads-up to those of you who might not follow such things. The £ and € exchange rates currently seem to be falling off a cliff versus the $.
Even with shipping costs kinda up there, now might be a decent time for folks in the US to grab up a few of those sweet sweet British and European swords.
fwiw
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Post by randomnobody on Apr 26, 2022 22:55:54 GMT
Ooh, $1 US can get £0.8 now? That's actually really good. €0.94 even better. I thought things were going well with the Yen (Wow, ¥127? Didn't realize it was THAT good)...
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Post by pellius on Jul 8, 2022 23:01:48 GMT
£ is still slowly sliding against the $. € is in free fall - getting very close to 1:1. Just fyi.
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stormmaster
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Post by stormmaster on Jul 8, 2022 23:05:24 GMT
I've been doing that the last few weeks, its been great
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Post by Lord Newport on Jul 9, 2022 0:28:58 GMT
Okay, so I’m not a finance person, and I’m not inviting political discussion in any way. With that out of the way, just a courtesy heads-up to those of you who might not follow such things. The £ and € exchange rates currently seem to be falling off a cliff versus the $. Even with shipping costs kinda up there, now might be a decent time for folks in the US to grab up a few of those sweet sweet British and European swords. fwiw The trend will probably continue for a bit...it is an economics discussion but that usually has to lead to/ include a political discussion so ah...yeah.. the $ is strong right now and will probably get stronger. I would be interested had it not been for all the foreign shipping horror stories I have read about here and the one I experienced myself.
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Post by randomnobody on Jul 9, 2022 1:01:42 GMT
Ooh, 0.98 Euro to the Dollar is pretty good. 0.83 GBP, but I've seen a few things saying the Pound may be picking up again soon. Market speculation, politics and all that. Euro is probably having it rough still with all the, well, Europe stuff going on right now... As long as my Dollar still buys more than 130 Yen (currently at 136) I'm satisfied. I won't cry if I get more, mind.
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stormmaster
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I like viking/migration era swords
Posts: 7,647
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Post by stormmaster on Jul 11, 2022 23:52:31 GMT
euro to dollar is 1 for 1 now boys, if guys buying euro made swords today's the day lol
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Post by pellius on Sept 1, 2022 16:40:19 GMT
Both still plummeting.
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Post by Lord Newport on Sept 1, 2022 16:57:11 GMT
An economic, not political view; Europe is in recession heading for depression and the US has a toe into what will probably be a strong recession...the US will be stronger economically thru it all supporting the demand for the dollar.
I expect the Pound sterling and the Euro will continue to decline against the dollar.
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Post by randomnobody on Sept 1, 2022 18:06:36 GMT
1 to 1 on the Euro, getting there on the Pound. Japanese Yen is hurting, but I'm not complaining. I spend more in Yen than I do in Dollars, but I get paid in Dollars...
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Post by Lord Newport on Sept 1, 2022 18:07:54 GMT
1 to 1 on the Euro, getting there on the Pound. Japanese Yen is hurting, but I'm not complaining. I spend more in Yen than I do in Dollars, but I get paid in Dollars... Japanese yen is hurting because of both lower export prospects with global slow down as well as higher global energy costs. Japan, like Europe has to import most of its energy.
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stormmaster
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I like viking/migration era swords
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Post by stormmaster on Sept 1, 2022 18:42:14 GMT
It has been a beautiful time to buy pieces from the UK and Europe
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Post by randomnobody on Sept 1, 2022 20:14:08 GMT
1 to 1 on the Euro, getting there on the Pound. Japanese Yen is hurting, but I'm not complaining. I spend more in Yen than I do in Dollars, but I get paid in Dollars... Japanese yen is hurting because of both lower export prospects with global slow down as well as higher global energy costs. Japan, like Europe has to import most of its energy. Rough for them, but for the time being, it's helping me out.
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Post by perignum on Sept 1, 2022 20:59:52 GMT
An economic, not political view; Europe is in recession heading for depression and the US has a toe into what will probably be a strong recession...the US will be stronger economically thru it all supporting the demand for the dollar. I expect the Pound sterling and the Euro will continue to decline against the dollar. Once again, economic not political but European economic growth is running around 5% and Ireland’s, where I am, is close to 6%. Next year is forecast to slowdown amongst all the uncertainty around energy supplies. But Europe is nowhere near recession territory. In fact, I’d argue that you guys take advantage of the exchange rate while you can because once the situation stabilises you’ll get fleeced again. It’s a pity the shipping is so pricey and is it my imagination or are Customs getting more awkward?
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Post by Lord Newport on Sept 1, 2022 22:39:48 GMT
An economic, not political view; Europe is in recession heading for depression and the US has a toe into what will probably be a strong recession...the US will be stronger economically thru it all supporting the demand for the dollar. I expect the Pound sterling and the Euro will continue to decline against the dollar. Once again, economic not political but European economic growth is running around 5% and Ireland’s, where I am, is close to 6%. Next year is forecast to slowdown amongst all the uncertainty around energy supplies. But Europe is nowhere near recession territory. In fact, I’d argue that you guys take advantage of the exchange rate while you can because once the situation stabilises you’ll get fleeced again. It’s a pity the shipping is so pricey and is it my imagination or are Customs getting more awkward? I stand corrected..
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Post by pellius on Sept 23, 2022 20:08:50 GMT
They’re still freeeeeeeeeeeee Free fallin’
Especially the £. Holy smokes!
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Post by Lord Newport on Sept 23, 2022 20:48:09 GMT
They’re still freeeeeeeeeeeee Free fallin’ Especially the £. Holy smokes! There are reasons for it... www.cnbc.com/2022/09/23/us-fiscal-policy-is-undermining-the-feds-efforts-to-fight-inflation.html?__source=newsletter%7Cinvestorsclub&fbclid=IwAR2idxFV1zT20tL7SNnKwxGGeftIgSJe4L8iqhdTGSqFnocSSsPoYj-GBkc#no_universal_links"Inflation remains the top issue on investors’ minds, with many trying to determine when the relentless rise in prices will stop and whether the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes to try to halt the spiral will engineer a so-called soft-landing for the economy — or, instead, send us into a deep recession. Indeed, your views on the trajectory of inflation will determine your views on future Fed actions — and, therefore, how you decide to put your money to work.
Central bank tightening — under the umbrella of monetary policy — is only one side of the equation when it comes to managing inflation. The other is fiscal policy, which is controlled by lawmakers in Congress.
Coordinated fiscal- and monetary policy can have a compounding effect in stamping out inflation. But in the current inflationary environment, an expansionary U.S. fiscal policy — one that includes high levels of spending from Covid pandemic stimulus measures through to the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act — has been largely undermining the Fed’s efforts to rein in runaway prices.
As JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told lawmakers at a banking hearing Wednesday on Capitol Hill, “I don’t think you can spend $6 trillion and not expect inflation.”
This phenomenon is not unique to the United State. In the U.K., the Bank of England on Thursday raised its base interest rate by 50 basis points, even as Prime Minister Liz Truss’ government on Friday unveiled sweeping tax cuts to spur consumer spending.
“What is worrisome in the last 24-48 hours … is an accelerated loss of confidence in policymaking,” Allianz advisor Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC Friday. “Policymaking [is] going from being a repressor of volatility to an amplifier of volatility,” he added.
Both central banks and lawmakers have two main tools they can use to impact the money supply in the economy – and every investor should be familiar with them. At a high level, these policies are used to cool an overheated economy or stimulate a stagnant one. When the goal is to put the brakes on economic activity, money needs to be pulled out of circulation to reduce the number of dollars competing for goods, and thereby limiting inflation. On the other hand, to stimulate activity requires pumping liquidity into the economy to encourage spending.
In the U.S., the Fed has two main tools at its disposal to achieve its dual mandate of maximizing employment and maintaining long-term price stability: interest rate hikes and open market activity.
When raising its key fed funds overnight bank lending rate, the Fed is directly raising borrowing costs between banks. By raising the rate, the Fed is seeking to disincentivize borrowing to douse an overheated economy. Conversely, when the Fed reduces the fed funds rate, it’s lowering lending costs to encourage both borrowing and spending to fuel the economy.
The Fed can also impact rates and the number of dollars in circulation by purchasing securities on the open market, known as open market activity. In an expansionary scenario — like the one we had in 2020 – the Fed seeks to purchase Treasuries and corporate bonds, thereby pumping money (liquidity) into the market in what’s called quantitative easing (QE). On the other hand, a more contractionary monetary policy — like we’re experiencing now — would see the Fed reduce its balance sheet by letting bonds mature without purchasing new ones, decreasing the number of dollars in circulation.
On the fiscal side, the federal government’s two main tools for managing the economy are taxes and spending.
If policymakers slow economic activity, they may look to the restrictive approach of raising taxes, thereby lowering consumers’ after-tax discretionary income — and, as a result, reducing their buying power. The policy has the result of effectively pulling money out of circulation. Expansionary policy implies the opposite — lowering taxes to keep more discretionary dollars in consumers’ pockets and incentivizing spending.
On the spending side, if the government wants to stimulate the economy, it can spend more on public investments like infrastructure that generate jobs and sales. A restrictive policy would see spending reduced, thus lowering the supply of money coming into the economy via government contracts, with knock-on effects for workers and commerce.
On the monetary policy front, we are currently getting exactly what we’d expect in a highly inflationary environment: rate hikes and balance sheet reduction, which help suck excess liquidity out of the market.
But given that U.S. fiscal policy is not acting in concert with monetary policy, the Fed’s efforts to bring down inflation have become all the more complicated. In the years since the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, expansionary fiscal policy — and monetary policy for that matter — has not posed much of a problem due to overall low inflation. Indeed, the last time the U.S. implemented a true contractionary fiscal policy was during the Clinton administration when taxes were raised, spending was reduced, and the federal budget flipped from a deficit to a surplus.
It is because of these seemingly contradictory policies that we have been of the view as Jim Cramer puts it: “Every time Fed Chair Jerome Powell seems to get a handle on inflation, the government throws him for a loop.”
In the end, we believe the Fed will win the war on inflation. However, it may just take longer than it otherwise would have. As Powell is attempting to slam on the breaks, government spending is acting like a foot on the gas pedal — drawing out this bout of inflation."
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AndiTheBarvarian
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Post by AndiTheBarvarian on Sept 23, 2022 21:03:44 GMT
Due to cheap Euro we pay much more for energy but at least we sell more of our stuff, 'cause cheap. Brits sell less. US sells energy for more but buys more stuff than they sell, for higher prices due to higher energy prices all over the world.
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Post by Lord Newport on Sept 23, 2022 21:30:07 GMT
Due to cheap Euro we pay much more for energy but at least we sell more of our stuff, 'cause cheap. Brits sell less. US sells energy for more but buys more stuff than they sell, for higher prices due to higher energy prices all over the world. Its a global market. Unfortunately its very clear that renewable energy is not ready to take over from fossil fuels. I don't know why we don't build new nuclear plants and have Elon Musk fly the spent fuel into the sun..
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AndiTheBarvarian
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Post by AndiTheBarvarian on Sept 23, 2022 21:36:14 GMT
Believe me, Germany is very interested in renewable energy in the moment. We really, really work on it, simply because it's profitable now That's the light at the end of the tunnel, if it ain't Putin's nukes.
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