Price of the Smith, Not the Steel.

That, and the JP govt ends up artificially raising their prices by arbitrarily limiting the number of blades that may be produced (i.e. shinsakuto) per month per smith. This is both foolish and unnecessary.

And unless Im misinformed, that's not even the best steel these days(for many decades now) for katanas.
You just get bragging rights by having the katana "traditionally" made

I'm not sure about current legislation, or even how accurate my memory is at this point, but I believe the steel and process, as well as the limit, are all in place as part of the heavy restrictions placed on making, selling, buying, and owning swords within Japan. They have exception status as "national/cultural works of art" and "martial arts training tools" but "for quality sake" they can make "so many" swords in a given time, in the traditional way from traditional materials and anything else is basically an illegal weapon.

I'm not sure, even if Japan changed its laws (which I'm pretty sure are left over from a compromise with the US following occupation post-WW2), whether any Japanese smith would switch to modern steels or continue with what they already know best.

I'm not really sure Yoshindo Yoshihara would make a sword with 9260, but if he did, I'm not sure it would compare favorably to tamahagane. I am sure the price would be comparable, even if a Japanese smith could make as many swords as they wanted. Might be good for apprentice smiths to practice forging 1045, 1060, whatever before moving up to tamahagane, but who's to say what those swords would cost, or how good they would be?

Call me a romantist, but I rather prefer that it were the Japanese smiths themselves who, in a free market economy, had control over what they make and how they make it, etc., continuing the respectful evolution or maintenance of their culture in the ways that seem best to them.

And I would definitely prefer that over the purveyors of Chinese craptana, who don't seem to note the irony in belching out Japanese-style blades while simultaneously professing their undying hatred of Japan.

I have a WW2 era gendaito that was water quenched but using a homogenous modern steel. It's relatively unique and rare. But had such experimentation and innovation been allowed to continue, beyond the Koa Isshin Mantetsu lines... who knows?

In my imagination, I can picture novices and apprentices working in modern steels, gradually moving up to tamahagane with their master's guidance. And if you've ever been to Japan, and been blown away like I was with the intricate attention to detail they put into absolutely everything, I think you wouldn't worry about them producing trash. And the customers and collectors and martial artists all over the world could rejoice at the diversity of offerings with corresponding and reasonable prices....

Anyway, I'm just rambling out loud.

Even those WW2 swords were less about the search for better steel and more about making cheaper steel work. Prior two WW2, the Japanese were using very Western-style sabers, probably all manufactured similarly to the Western sabers of the day. At some point in the new Japanese imperialism, the katana made a comeback, because SAMURAI and BUSHIDO themed nationalism.

I'm not sure how many early gunto were made with modern steels in the modern method, as I'm unfamiliar with gunto evolution. I do know, even with the Western-style sabers and then into gunto, ancestral swords were re-mounted to fit the new look.

Going into WW2, I'd assume the better of the issued blades were probably of modern steel, possibly traditionally forged, but as the war went on they uh...got less good. After the war came the confiscation, destruction, and ban of swords, throughout the occupation. Later, a deal was struck such that, to preserve tradition, heritage, art, whatever, Japan was allowed to make swords again, with very, very specific requirements. This is why we have what we have now.

Overall, current-day Japan is not terribly concerned with swords and would rather most people not have such easy access to them and other weapons as we enjoy in other countries, so there's not been a lot of push to modernize. It's all about the traditional art and preserving it as such.

Theoretically, any Japanese smith wishing to use other steels could visit another country to do so, and several have. They can't bring those swords back home, though. The few that have been made elsewhere have not exactly been extensively tested, but that's probably because they're valued just as high or higher than a traditional blade from the same smith...

As for "Chinese craptana" some are far less crap than others, but it's not just the Chinese making replicas. It is, however, the Chinese who are doing it the cheapest, and that's why they're so popular worldwide.

Many of whom costing the same as the Japanese smiths. There are a few European smiths I can think of that offer fantastic value, but still run well above, for instance, this forum's target range. Worth every penny and then some, of course.

While valuable and interesting, ultimately, I do not think you can aggregate the price per hour in the manner you did.  Far too many variables to consider. 

That said, it is also possible that the original JP govt limit was a reasonable one.  I do not know enough about the rate of failure and total time (incl. tatara time) to produce a good, functional blade from tamahagane.  Perhaps it was a good compromise estimate to force quality control and not entirely arbitrary as I suggested.  

I don't think that's necessarily true.  Competition among smiths and the various craftsmen and increase in supply to meet a globally steady demand will definitely affect prices.  The highest tier with all the bells and whistles (meaning more labor hours and higher cost materials) will always enjoy a stratospherically high equilibrium price.  But there will be greater variety, degrees of quality, and levels of fit/finish overall. 

Case in point: the JP iaito market.  You can find a perfectly fine and durable training tool for $200~$300.  You can also get a fully customized top-tier for $1000 and above.  And those are zinc-aluminum blades, for which there is a much lower demand; it's a considerably smaller niche market.  I can't imagine the margins are very good in that industry, which is probably why there are... what, 2 or 3 main producers of them (then the distributors like Seido and Tozando sell at a small mark-up again).

But the shinsakuto market is a completely different story.  But bc they are limited to producing a smaller number of blades (I detest such top-down regulations as a matter of principle), their options for setting their own prices are limited.  Which is why the overall number of JP smiths keep shrinking and up-and-coming talented young smiths eventually burn out and quit.  

I don't know how or why Western custom smiths set their prices, but I can make some assumptions.  To be able to do what they do for a living would require a steady and widespread demand.  But there is an implicit acknowledgement that this is also a niche market.  Given the choices between a "real JP sword by a JP smith" and a custom blade by an American smith who doesn't enjoy that same cultural cache, most people who are not serious collectors or practitioners will opt for the former.  After all, how many people outside of our community of collectors will know who Rick Barrett or Louis Mills is?  There is no great benefit for a Western smith to work themselves to an early grave trying to forge out as many blades as possible at a lowered price point.  There is also a tiny number of decent craftsmen (again, not well known outside of our little bubble) who can polish and mount their work.  They must simultaneously contend with all of the various Chinese production forges AND JP nihonto and shinsakuto.  It's a funky place to be in.  So, unless you're Howard Clark, who had some really great PR in the early days of the Katana-craze/boom (thanks, Hollywood!), you make a limited number of high-end blades and aim at prestige over competing for the middle-tier, which is saturated with production stuff.  But because the demand for their blades remains limited (and shrinking), after the temporary boom fizzles out, it just isn't economical to try to stay in the game and try to do it for a living.  But if you have managed to gain the notoriety of Howard Clark, your blades hold their value over time and you can still offer ~$4K(?) for a bare L6 blade.

I have a brand-new unfinished Rick Barrett katana bare blade coming soon.  I got it at an amazing price.  But after I'm done getting it fitted and finished, it will still cost somewhere near the lower/mid end of the shinsakuto market.  And at those prices, I think most casual customers who just want a JP sword will go and get a "real" JP sword; not from a Western smith.  But what is the alternative for a Western smith, even someone as talented as Rick Barrett?  Compete in the same price range as high end production blades like Motohara or Hataya-Kotetsu, that come fully mounted and polished?  I really don't think it would work.

Not sure I really have a strong point to make.  Mostly just thinking out loud.  Thanks for the thought-provoking/engaging conversation though!  

I would appreciate it if you would read my post before responding. Or not. It is pretty long.

Anyway, I disagree with this assessment that the demand for Western smith's custom katana is anywhere comparable to a JP shinsakuto. The rest of my post is actually predicated on this, which seems to be an important point of disagreement between your perception and mine.